I would like to report some reflections on the economic crisis that now seems to be the preamble to a ten-year period of depression. I wonder what does? I believe that everyone in his small should be aware of what surrounds us and behind a crisis born of the opportunities that a country like Cervignano could take as its size. We written together with a friend trying to put together the information that we collect and passion for work every day is a long read but I think it can be profitable
Hug
The crisis we are experiencing is really deep in the hit the transmission belt of the economy: banks, private companies and then "for-profit, whose main task is the characteristic activity or provide the customers with the means of payment intermediation between supply (households) and demand for capital (enterprises).
In normal economic conditions the flow of money into a bank for new deposit exceeds the outflow of money for withdrawals. The bank must not therefore keep the money received pending the depositor withdraw them, but may keep only a part, called the reserve to meet cash needs. Set aside a share of deposits to form the reserve, the amount of which depends on the choices of the bank in Italy as well as by law, the remainder of the deposits is invested in income-generating activities.
If this task is less than the bank no longer serves its primary task, and can trigger serious problems to the economy, just as is happening.
last year, deposits at the European Central Bank have reached record highs, a sign of low confidence of banks to the banking system and preferring relate only ever with the ECB rather than the economic system, since the finance companies have significantly reduced or, at best, has increased their cost. We citizens are told, however, to be calm and serene and we are constantly recommended to give each its own contribution to running the economy. The effects
a way to end the crisis there, history teaches us that if you come out ahead , but this just tells us that solutions are rarely painless, and that every crisis brings with it a re- wealth and opportunities.
The greatest impact the current economic crisis is conceivable it will all areas of the world mainly due to increased use of credit in our country think that the big city penalized than the average Italian province on the outskirts . If we focus then on the poorest areas of our country like South Italy, with high rates of registered unemployment, where banks have always bestowed little credit, it is conceivable to expect a less strong as the ordinary citizen has never had the real opportunity to exploit the leverage credit.
An example of state in Europe grown a lot thanks to the leverage is Greece with a capacity of household savings is very low (this would be verified actually), thanks to the use of credit has been very supportive of demand.
And now that the leverage of credit is accessible only to a select few still considered reliable, as the immediate future we can expect?
containment of unemployment is the primary means that European governments and the world at their disposal to deal with this recession, the deepest that most of us have ever lived. Its length will depend on the ability to cope with their own, and especially the ability to understand financial capability.
The modern welfare systems, even the strongest of northern Europe, they work if the seizures are brief , otherwise states can not guarantee them for too long periods in time. countries where this is lacking always like Italy, is an illusion to expect the significant and effective interventions at this stage of crisis, in which state support is claimed by too many areas, primarily in the banking and automotive, enjoying the favor of the policy all along.
The roof can be fixed when the weather is fine, says a saying I like to remember often. For now the storm is very intense.
In the second phase of the crisis, the real problem is the inflationary spiral and the resulting rate hike by the central banks suddenly and will provide short to contain inflation someone expected double-digit and will be due to the circulation of all this liquidity that central banks are injecting into the system.
Recall that a central bank is not, in principle, different from any other bank, except the power to issue and withdraw money: the aim is to adjust the amount of money in circulation in the economy, while the commercial bank can expand the uses to the extent that the deposits grow.
Italian law requires banks to hold reserves at the Central Bank, so that it can adjust the effect of inflation generated issuance of currency: the higher the percentage of capital equipment at the central bank, the lower the inflation generated.
safe exit from the crisis will only happen with a change of rules : we need the will and political capacity to want to draw a new world, you need the enthusiasm to take on new roads. Those old as the support of public demand through investment in major infrastructure projects, as many claim regardless of political party membership, I by no means the only road that will lead to a solution.
Many fear that this crisis is comparable to the living Japan for almost twenty years.
Japan, unlike many Western economies, is a country rich in capital funding over the world, primarily the United States and its public debt, because its low rates (0.10% -0.25%) do not make profitable use at home, which is characterized by an 'economy is export - driven, low domestic consumption related to demographic factors such as aging of the population.
The deep crisis originated in the Japanese banking system: their suffering had reached such numbers that it requires time funding their cancellation by the state. The crisis then spread to the economy as the Rhine model Mainly the result is clear for all to see. Deflation for a decade, the specter of all economies.
Japan was out of the financial crisis period of fifteen days and now with the beating are almost bankrupt. Deflation is a country that is in constant prices go down instead of up (the terror of all economies) were almost able to bring everything to 0, but now I am fallen. their macroeconomic data are shameful, that Panasonic thinks dismiss 15,000 employees and that the only car manufacturer was found to triple A and will be dramatically downgraded again, you think. the only thing that consoles is that they have a lot of technology industries segments of earth (phones, tv etc..) that standing but as mentioned above even Panasonic is not doing well
The Anglo-Saxon countries are all in crisis FULL.
England is an economy that has staked everything on the development of the City.
Australia is an exporting country, jam-packed with resources and nationalistic policies are putting in the knee. + They have always had very high inflation than in Europe and now it come to below 3 which for them is very low.
Ireland which has based its economy on the banks using tax policies favorable (all banks opened branches in Ireland and brought their mutual fund them) you can imagine as if the pass ....
Similarly, Russia is in crisis being a country full of resources and not tied to domestic consumption, their banking system is even more so because the war in Georgia has led the Russians to withdraw money from banks to literally fear of the cold war, add to this that banks do not work in the local currency into dollars and then but still mess up mess. INDIA
that all relies on information technology has discovered that the two largest software house in the country budgets were fake and that brought down the entire sector.
China must prepare to extreme social tensions due to the mass of people who are coming back in the country, the latest figure is about 15%, which leaves the urbanized centers, but that obviously will not find the work they had left to go in the city. Sadly there is a dictatorship and the army is very strong .... the rest I leave to your imagination.
I therefore believe that the crisis will only come out realizing that the myth of growth at all costs is over, and that once "plugged the gaps" created by the greed and self from the world banking system, should be taken a step backwards certain rules that delineate a world where attention to the waste and the excess is the dominant trait.
Who will have the ability to create a network of social solidarity (characteristic of Friuli), in my opinion should not be afraid, especially if it has the ability to adapt to the world to come that will be much different from what we have known.
I think the politicians of the future will be those who today will have the ability to understand that the old methods do not solve problems but only with a choice of new and radical change.
In Italy if all this is going better ... for various reasons and the fact that our Prime Minister Berlusconi is not spending a euro ... (Since that makes us).
I am worried because apart from the crisis in automobile sales (which were sold almost exclusively on credit, just think that the financial fiat is one of the largest in Italy) it seems that the people you are not realizing the crisis. The drip of media that there is SILVIO propinano is having some effect. we hope not suddenly wake up from anesthesia because it would be painful.
THIS is the deepest crisis is not due to war and perhaps this is his greatest weakness, because it has awakened all the wars awaken ... do not take it as an omen, but as a sad realization that the human being wakes up only after you hit bottom ...
and after this blow to optimism ALLEGRIAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
